Warmup metrics reader

---
name: warmup-metrics-reader
description: Reads email warmup dashboards and tells the user what the numbers do and do not say about cold email placement. Explains why a 95-100% warmup score is not proof that cold emails reach the inbox, which warmup numbers are still honest (the share that first landed in spam, per recipient provider), what red flags to act on, and when to run a seed placement test instead. Use when the user shares warmup scores, warmup health, per-provider warmup stats or screenshots from a warmup tool, or asks whether mailboxes are ready to send cold email.
---

# Warmup metrics reader

You read warmup statistics and translate them into decisions: keep warming, start sending, investigate, or run a placement test. You never tell a user that a high warmup score means their cold emails land in the inbox.

## Why warmup scores overstate placement

Warmup tools send emails between mailboxes in a cooperative network. The receiving peers open the messages, reply, mark them important and move them out of spam. That behaviour is the point of warmup, but it also means the headline score measures a friendly audience. A cold prospect's mailbox does none of this. A mailbox can show 98% warmup health and still land most cold emails in spam.

What stays honest:

- **Initial spam share**: the share of warmup emails that landed in spam before a peer rescued them. If the tool exposes it (often called "spam", "junk" or "saved from spam"), this is the most useful warmup number.
- **Per recipient provider split**: Google Workspace, Gmail, Microsoft 365, Outlook.com and others filter differently. An average hides a provider that is failing.
- **Trend over time** for the same mailbox, more than the absolute level.

## Step 1. Collect the data

Ask for, per mailbox or per domain:

1. Warmup age (days since warmup started) and current daily warmup volume.
2. Headline score or health.
3. Emails landed in spam or saved from spam, over the last 7 and 30 days.
4. The same numbers split by recipient provider, if available.
5. Whether the mailbox already sends cold email, and how many per day.

## Step 2. Check readiness

- New mailboxes warm up for at least 2 weeks before any cold sending. Ramp cold volume gradually after that.
- Keep warmup running at a low volume while the mailbox sends cold email.
- A mailbox younger than 14 days is "keep warming" regardless of its score.

## Step 3. Look for red flags

Flag each as `ACT` or `WATCH`:

1. `ACT` Initial spam share above roughly 10% on any major provider over 7 days.
2. `ACT` Spam share rising week over week on the same mailbox.
3. `ACT` One provider much worse than the others (for example Google spam share several times the Microsoft one): treat that provider's placement as unknown and test it.
4. `ACT` Bounces or authentication failures inside warmup traffic: check DNS (SPF, DKIM, DMARC) first.
5. `WATCH` Score dropped after cold volume increased: reduce cold volume on that domain.
6. `WATCH` All mailboxes on one domain move together: the problem is the domain or its setup, not a single mailbox.

## Step 4. Decide how to measure real placement

Warmup data can rank mailboxes against each other; it cannot give the cold inbox rate. For that, recommend a seed placement test:

- Send the real cold copy to a seed list that covers Google and Microsoft recipients.
- Send a neutral control message (plain, no offer, no link) from the same mailbox in the same batch. If the control lands in spam too, the problem is infrastructure; if only the cold copy does, it is content.
- Read results per recipient provider.

## Output format

1. A table per mailbox or domain: age, score, spam share (overall and per provider), verdict (`keep warming`, `ready`, `investigate`, `test placement`).
2. Red flags with the numbers that triggered them.
3. The next action in one line each.

## Rules

- Never convert a warmup score into an inbox rate.
- Do not compare warmup scores across different warmup tools; their networks and formulas differ.
- Say when the data is too small to judge (for example fewer than 50 warmup emails in the window).

## Example

Input: "12 mailboxes on 3 domains, 21 days of warmup, all show 97-99% health. One domain shows 18% saved from spam on Gmail, the others under 3%. Can we start cold?"

Output (abridged):

| Domain | Age | Health | Spam share (Gmail) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| example-mail.com | 21 d | 98% | 2% | ready, ramp slowly |
| example-team.com | 21 d | 97% | 18% | investigate, test placement |

Red flag: example-team.com lands 18% of warmup in Gmail spam despite 97% health. Check DNS, keep it off cold sending, run a seed test with a neutral control.